The rebound in India’s exports to the US after September reflects adjustment to a tougher tariff regime, not relief, and remains fragile, driven by short-term coping strategies rather than a lasting improvement, per a report by research body GTRI.
In sectors such as electronics and machinery, supply-chain realignments and inventory restocking ahead of the US holiday season also supported shipments, the study noted.
“The drop between May and September likely reflected the shock and uncertainty created by impending tariff hikes, which led buyers to delay orders and run down inventories. Once the higher tariffs became certain, exporters and US buyers began adjusting—absorbing part of the cost, renegotiating prices, and shifting toward less-affected or hard-to-substitute products,” the study noted.
Despite the 50 per cent US tariffs imposed on several Indian goods in August-end, exports to the country in November increased 22.61 per cent to $6.98 billion after declining in September and October, per Commerce Ministry data.
India’s exports to the US between May and November 2025 followed a clear two-phase pattern—a sharp fall until September, followed by a partial recovery by November, the GTRI report observed.
“Nearly 85 per cent of November exports came from sectors that first declined and then rebounded. For example, Gems and Jewellery exports plunged from $500.2 million in May to $202.8 million in September, and then rebounding to $406.2 million in November.
Same pattern is visible across electronics (smartphones), machinery, vehicles and auto components, pharmaceuticals, textiles and garments, carpets, mineral fuels, organic chemicals, plastics, rubber articles, fish, dairy products, and edible fruits and nuts,” it said.
India’s exports fell more sharply during the low-tariff phase and then recovered partially under the higher-tariff regime, demonstrating an unusual pattern.
Exports fell between May and September even though tariffs were relatively low—10 per cent in May, June and July, 10 per cent from August 1–6, 25 per cent from August 7–27, and 50 per cent from August 28–31.
September, the first full month under the 50 per cent tariff, marked the low point. Yet exports partly recovered between September and November, even though the 50 per cent tariff remained in place throughout that period, the report noted.
