The Ministry of Commerce has established an import monitoring group to track potential increases in goods flowing into India as countries like China seek alternative markets following reduced access to U.S. markets due to Trump tariffs.
According to a senior official who spoke on Monday, the group will comprise officials from the commerce and revenue departments, as well as the department for promotion of industry and internal trade, reported FT.
The monitoring body will also include representatives from line ministries handling products experiencing import surges and industry associations for additional input.
The official indicated that clear signals of import surges are likely to become apparent from June-July. The first phase of reciprocal tariffs has already been implemented, with the second tranche set to take effect from April 10.
Exporters worldwide have accelerated shipments to the United States to beat these deadlines, with surplus products expected to be diverted to India starting in May.
The monitoring group aims to identify early warning signs of surges resulting from trade diversion rather than waiting for domestic industries to report issues, enabling faster remedial action.
“The idea is to observe these imports and see if any measures need to be taken. It will look at all the data points closely, including shipments coming from air and sea routes. While intense watch is required, volatility in imports is normal,” the official explained.
To address potential surges, the government will utilise established anti-dumping procedures through the Directorate General of Trade Remedies (DGTR).
This process involves investigations that can lead to safeguard or anti-dumping duties, with provisional measures possible while investigations are underway.
The immediate surge is anticipated in consumer goods, with intermediate goods and raw materials potentially following as exporters seek new markets in India.
Special attention will be paid to China and other Asia-Pacific nations like Vietnam, Thailand, and South Korea, which have closer supply chain integration with India.
Experts and exporters are particularly concerned about dumping in India because the U.S. reciprocal tariff plan has imposed higher duties on India’s competitors.
While India faces a 26 per cent additional import duty from the U.S., Vietnam faces 46 per cent, China 34 per cent, Indonesia 32 per cent, and Thailand 36 per cent.
Despite these challenges, the official noted that the situation presents opportunities for domestic industries to procure intermediate goods at competitive rates from China and other East Asian countries.
To support exporters facing additional U.S. duties, the government is intensifying efforts to help them explore new markets.
The Commerce Ministry is expediting its Export Promotion Mission to provide assistance in areas such as affordable credit and accelerating negotiations on proposed free trade agreements with the European Union, Oman, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom.
Furthermore, officials have been instructed to conduct a series of bilateral meetings with 20 identified countries, including Australia, Brazil, China, and France, to boost Indian exports.
