India’s merchandise exports are projected to fall below USD 435 billion for the fiscal year ending March 2025, slightly lower than the USD 437.1 billion recorded in FY’2024, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).
This forecast comes as exports have been contracting consistently since October last year, with February figures showing a 10.85 percent decline to USD 36.91 billion.
The decline has been attributed to volatility in petroleum prices and ongoing global uncertainties, according to GTRI Founder Ajay Srivastava.
Despite the overall downward trend, cumulative exports for April-February 2024-25 stood at USD 395.63 billion, marginally higher than the USD 395.38 billion registered during the same period in the previous fiscal year.
Several key sectors have recorded negative growth both in February and cumulatively throughout the fiscal year. These include petroleum products, gems and jewellery, ceramic products and glassware, oil seeds, oil meals, and iron ore.
The consistent decline in these sectors indicates a need for strategic interventions to support recovery, Srivastava noted.
The petroleum products sector has been particularly hard hit, with exports falling 29.23 percent in February 2025 and 25.56 percent over the 11-month period.
This decline is primarily attributed to a 7.8 percent drop in global crude oil prices, which fell from USD 83.5 per barrel in February 2024 to USD 77 per barrel in February 2025.
According to Srivastava, recovery in this sector will depend on global oil price trends and increased refining efficiency to maintain margins.
Engineering goods, which represent India’s largest export segment, experienced an 8.62 percent decline in February 2025, although the sector has recorded a 7.97 percent increase over the 11-month period.
To support this critical sector, Srivastava suggested that the government could provide low-cost export credit to reduce financial pressure on exporters and offer technology upgrade incentives to boost productivity and efficiency.
Srivastava emphasised that implementing targeted policy measures could help stabilise struggling sectors and improve overall export performance, ensuring India maintains its competitiveness in the global trade market.
