India’s official GDP numbers are set to become more granular and less volatile, as the government moves to embed high-frequency administrative datasets, such as GST filings, vehicle registrations from the e-Vahan portal and natural gas consumption, directly into quarterly growth calculations.
The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said on January 23 that it is reviewing the methodology used to compile quarterly GDP as part of the transition to a new national accounts series with FY23 as the base year. The proposed overhaul has been detailed in a discussion paper released for stakeholder consultation.
At present, India’s quarterly GDP estimates rely on a benchmark–indicator approach, where high-frequency indicators are aligned to annual national accounts benchmarks. While this ensures consistency with annual data, it produces sharp revisions and visible breaks in the series whenever annual numbers are updated.
MoSPI now plans to move to a proportional benchmarking technique, a method widely used in advanced statistical systems globally. Instead of forcing quarterly data to mechanically align with annual totals, proportional benchmarking preserves the underlying movement of economic indicators. According to the discussion paper, this shift should result in smoother quarterly growth trajectories and fewer abrupt revisions.
A central pillar of the revamp is the expansion of high-frequency administrative data used to estimate economic activity. GST return data is expected to play a larger role in tracking trade, manufacturing and services, while vehicle registrations from the e-Vahan database will help refine estimates in transport and related sectors. Energy indicators, such as natural gas consumption, are likely to improve measurement in industrial activity and utilities.
These additions are particularly significant for sectors like construction, transport, trade and manufacturing.
The changes will be rolled out alongside the broader rebasing of national accounts. The revised quarterly GDP series, aligned with the FY23 base year, is scheduled to be released in February 2026, together with updated annual GDP estimates.
